Sealed product & breaks
Team Break Odds Calculator
A box with eight hits across thirty teams does not give every team a 27% chance — it depends on roster size and how hits are distributed. This models it properly and shows how often your team comes away with nothing.
Why the naive number is wrong
Dividing hits by teams gives an expected count, not a probability. With eight hits and thirty teams the expectation is 0.27 hits per team — but the chance of getting at least one is different, and the chance of getting nothing is the number that actually matters when you are watching.
Three quarters of the time, that slot produces no hit at all. Slot pricing rarely reflects that, because it is set by team popularity rather than by checklist share.
Checklist share, not team count
Teams do not have equal representation. A large-market team with several stars can hold double the checklist share of a small one, and the difference compounds across every hit in the box. That is the single input worth getting right, and it is on the set checklist rather than in the break description.
Questions people ask about this
What are the odds of hitting in a group break?
With eight hits in a break and a team holding 3.3% of the checklist, the chance of at least one hit is about 24% — so three quarters of the time that slot produces nothing. Dividing hits by teams gives an expected count, not a probability, and the two are very different numbers.
Do all teams have the same chance in a break?
No. Teams have unequal representation on a set checklist — a large-market team with several stars can hold twice the share of a small one. Since hits are distributed across the checklist rather than across teams, that difference translates directly into hit probability.
Is buying multiple slots better than one?
It raises the chance of at least one hit and does nothing to the expected value per dollar. Two slots in a 30-team break roughly double your checklist share and roughly double your cost — the variance falls, the average outcome does not change.
Where these numbers come from
Rates on this page were last checked against the published price lists on . Grading companies change fees and pause tiers without notice — confirm the total on the submission form before you pay.