Player stats & fantasy

Survivor Pool Calculator

Pick one team a week, never reuse them, one loss and you are out. This computes the chance of surviving any number of weeks at a given pick quality — and shows why the intuitive strategy of always picking the biggest favourite is the wrong one.

—chance of surviving to the end

Survival curve, week by week.
Week	Chance you are still in	Entries still alive	Pot per survivor

Why 75% a week is not a good position

Surviving seventeen weeks at 75% a week is 0.75¹⁷, which is about 0.75%. Even at 85% a week it is 6%. Survivor pools are not usually won outright — most seasons end with the pot split among a handful of entries, and many end with everyone eliminated and the pot rolling over.

P(surviving n weeks) = weekly win probability ^ n 0.75^17 ≈ 0.0075 0.85^17 ≈ 0.062 0.90^17 ≈ 0.167

The strategic mistake almost everyone makes

Using the strongest team in week one. Teams can only be picked once, so spending an 80% favourite early leaves you choosing between 60% options in December, when the field has thinned and every pick matters more. Saving strong teams for weeks where the alternatives are poor raises your season-long survival probability materially — the product of the weekly probabilities is what matters, not any single week.

The contrarian argument. When 60% of the pool picks the same team and that team loses, the field collapses and the survivors split a much larger pot. Taking a slightly worse pick that differs from the crowd lowers your survival odds a little and raises your expected winnings a lot — because the payout is shared, and the sharing is what you are really competing over.

Questions people ask about this

What are the odds of winning a survivor pool?

Lower than almost anyone expects. Picking 75% favourites every week gives roughly a 0.75% chance of surviving seventeen weeks; even at 85% a week it is about 6%. Most seasons end with the pot split among a few survivors or with everyone eliminated and the pot rolling over.

Should I use my best team early in a survivor pool?

Usually not. Each team can only be picked once, so spending an 80% favourite in week one leaves you with weak options in December when the field has thinned. Season-long survival is the product of every week's probability, so saving strong teams for weeks with poor alternatives raises the whole chain.

Is it better to make a contrarian pick?

Often, because the payout is shared. If most of the pool picks one team and it loses, the survivors split a far larger pot. Taking a slightly less likely winner that differs from the crowd lowers your survival odds a little and raises your expected winnings considerably.

Where these numbers come from

Rates on this page were last checked against the published price lists on September 4, 2026. Grading companies change fees and pause tiers without notice — confirm the total on the submission form before you pay.